• Data Analytics and Trading Systems in Stock Market

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Disclaimer: The content of this page is provided to facilitate the conceptual understanding of stock market trading and investing. It does not constitute advice, or a recommendation, to buy, trade or invest in stocks or any other tools such as futures and options. If you decide to trade, you may be taking on risk for which there is no recourse. इस पृष्ठ का मूल उद्देश्य शेयर बाजार में क्रय और विक्रय का और निवेश की वैचारिक समझ को सुविधाजनक बनाना है। यह स्टॉक या वायदा और विकल्प जैसे किसी अन्य उपकरण को क्रय-विक्रय करने, व्यापार करने या निवेश करने की सलाह या अनुशंसा नहीं है। यदि आप क्रय और विक्रय करने का निर्णय लेते हैं, तो आप जोखिम उठा रहे होंगे जिसका कोई सहारा नहीं है।


Table of Contents: Option Stop-Loss Calc |-Risk-Reward Ratio |-Magic of Compunding |-Options Basics |-Passive Income |-Land Measurement System |-Fundamental Analysis |-Market Frauds |-Loan EMI Calc |-Option Delta Calculator |-Assymetry in Option Pricing


सकारात्मक दृष्टिकोण:

मेरे पास धन सम्पदा विभिन्न श्रोतों से लगातार और अधिकाधिक मात्रा में आ रही है। मेरे सभी निवेश लाभप्रद हैं और भविष्य में और अधिक लाभकारी होंगे।

I am earning money continously from various sources, all my investments are profitable and shall be more profitable in future!

Basics of stock market trading

It is negative-sum activity!

There is a PANIC seller, there is a GREEDY buyer

There is a GREEDY buyer, there is a PROFIT-Making seller

These statements may look mysterious, foolish or obvious, the fact remains that money only changes hands in the stock market. Though, if trades are evaluated over a long term, half trades [and not traders] shall be winners and remaining half shall be losers. Note that wealth destruction does happen but by company operations and not in trading. Despite 98% value erosion in Suzlon and Yesbank - traders have made huge profits.

Golden Rules of Trading: note it is called "golden rules" and not "assured return" rules.

  1. Decide exit strategy [stop-loss or book-profit] at the time of entry only
  2. Make yourself a promise not to enter into a trade without (trailing) stop-loss
  3. Deploy only 50% of corpus - keep 25% for reverse trade during extreme volatility
  4. Put all effort to avoid Hope Trades - this will mentally drain you and lead to over-trade
  5. Learn to respect the momentum [moving averages are the simplest method to gauge momentum if you cannot infer momentum from price chart].

क्षति-सीमा में प्रत्यक्ष सुरक्षा या नुकसान को नियंत्रित करने के साथ साथ कई अप्रत्यक्ष लाभ हैं। यह आपको खेल में बनाए रखता है, आपके दिमाग को पिछले नुकसानों से अव्यवस्थित नहीं करता है और आपको अनुकूल बाजार चाल के लिए प्रतीक्षा या प्रार्थना करने के लिए विवश नहीं करता है। यदि आपको हाल ही में (भारी) घाटा हुआ है या घाटा महीने-दर-महीने आगे बढ़ाया जा रहा है तो आप अच्छा व्यापार नहीं कर सकते। इससे विपरीत अनुकूल स्थिति उत्पन्न होने पर भी व्यापार करने में डर पैदा होगा। "लोहे की शक्ति" होने से प्रतिभूति विपणि या मण्डी में व्यापार में मदद नहीं मिलती है। हालाँकि बहुत सारे संयोजन संभव हैं, आप यहाँ वर्णित कुछ के आधार पर अपनी स्वयं की रणनीतियाँ विकसित करना पसंद कर सकते हैं: Stop-loss has many indirect benefit than direct protection or capping of losses. It keeps you in the game, does not clutter your mind with previous losses and does not make you wait or even pray for favourable market moves. You cannot trade well if you have recent (huge) losses or losses are being carried forward month after month. It will instill fear to make trade even if a more favourable situation arise. Having a "nerve of steel" does not help in stock market trading. While there are too many combinations possible, you may like to evolve your own strategies based on few described here:

[1]Keep stock selection different for different mode of trading: intraday, swing, long term (> 5 years) [2]Do not track more than 50 shares and more than 5 industry segments - you may rotate the names keeping numbers under certain manageable limits [3]Invest in some high dividend yield stocks - over 10 to 15 years period, the effective yield may reach in lower double digits [4]Do not keep more than 2 trading accounts - better stick to one else you can keep one for trading and one for investment [5]Do not make a trade if you are concerned about brokerage and overhead costs [6]Note that stocks in your portfolio can provide margin money only for intra-day. For positions carried forward for many days, you will be charged high interest rate [as high as 18% per annum] by your stock broker [7]Keep 10% of available capital as back-up or buffer [8]Note that hedging always costs money that cannot be recovered [*]First thing last: learn the basics such as Trailing Stop-loss Order, Bracket Order, Circuit Limits, stocks in T2T Segments.

Many a time, one is tempted to make a "cover trade" to minimize the losses. For example, if you have sold a call option which turned a loss-making trade, one tends to sell a put to cover some of the losses. It is better to book the loss and wait for favourable opportunity than to over-trade.

One should not put all his capital into stocks. A sample distribution is shown below and you should select 5 segments of your choice distribute your investments as per your near and far future cash requirements.

Investment pie-chart

ध्यान दें कि प्रति वर्ष 1.5 लाख रुपये की अधिकतम निवेश सीमा के कारण सार्वजनिक भविष्य निधि (पीपीएफ) का अंश धीरे-धीरे ही बढ़ सकता है। उसी तरह अल्पकालिक पूर्वानुमानों के आधार पर नकदी रोकड़ का प्रतिशत बढ़ाया जा सकता है। ऐतिहासिक रूप से, सोना अच्छे अंतर के साथ मुद्रास्फीति को मात देने को सुनिश्चित करता है और व्यक्ति को अपनी पूंजी का लगभग चौथाई हिस्सा भौतिक सोने में लगाना चाहिए। एकमात्र चुनौती बैंक लॉकर से जुड़ा खर्च और/या आपके घर में बड़ी मात्रा में सोना रखने का खतरा है! Note that the fraction of Public Provident Fund (PPF) can increase gradually due to maximum invementment limit of INR 1.5 lakh per annum. Same way the percentage of cash can be increased based on short-term forecasts. Historically, gold is guaranteed to beat the inflation with good margin and one must have around quarter of his capital in physical gold. The only challenges are the expense associated with bank locker and/or risk of having large amount of gold at your home!

A good way to create a decent corpus is to create recurring deposit (RD). One may get distracted with low interest rate and erosion of value due to inflation. The purpose is to create a 'bulk' amount and not investment. While most financial institutions provide RD up to 5 years, one may invest the maturity amount in FD once RD tenure gets over and restart. Following is the formula to calculate interest on RD. Let's first review the formula to calculate compound interest rate:

Compounding Interest Rate

In a recurring deposit scheme, this value estimated from this formula needs to be added for every installment. The ith installment shall have value of TENURE = i/12, where i = 1 to "Duration of Deposit" (years) x 12 (months/year).

Recurring Deposit Calc

Monthly Installament in INR:Annual Rate of Interest (in fraction):  
Tenure of the Recurring Deposit (years):Compoundign Frequency (numbers per year):
Maturity Amount (INR) Lakh:Interest (INR) Lakh:
If you invest in Public Provident Fund (PPF) 12,500 Rupees every month (1.50 lakh per annum) for 15 years, at 7.1% return, you will have a capital of 39.4 lakh with your contribution of 22.5 lakh Rupees.

Typical Brokerage Structure

While one should not focus on the brokerage rate, one should be aware of the overheads associated with trades. In addition to the brokerage, there are many other types of charges that you need to pay with every trade such as Purchase / Sale Securities Transaction Tax (STT) which is 0.752% in 2024 on NSE, General Sales Taxes CGST and SGST (or IGST:Integrated GST; UTT: Union Territory Tax) each at 9% of brokerage value, NSE transaction charge at 2.11%, Sebi Turnover Fee: 0.06%, Stamp Duty at 10.0% and IPFT charge at 0.06%.

Thus, if your brokerage rate is 0.20% then effective overhead including brokerage would be 0.20 x [1 + 0.09 + 0.09 + 0.752 + 0.0211 + 0.0006 + 0.10 + 0.0006] = 0.4108% which should be kept in mind while making trades for small gains. Thus, a 0.83% profitable change in your delivery-based positions is only the break-even level.

CASH
TRADINGDELIVERY
1st leg2nd legNormalOdd Lot
%Min (paisa)*%Min (paisa)%Min (paisa)%Min (paisa)
0.01505.000.01505.000.15005.000.15005.00
Minimum Brokerage** per security type: Rs 15.50

* This shall put constraints in case you want to make trades on penny stocks (priced ≤ INR 20). ** This is something which is not explicitly specified by stock brokers.

Futures and Options
FUTURESOPTIONS
First day1st leg2nd legAny OtherFirst day1st leg2nd legAny Other
(Non sqoff)(intraday)(intraday)(Day)(Non sqoff)(intraday)(intraday)(Day)
0.02000.02000.02000.0200 0.02% 0.02% 0.02% 0.0001%
Minimum Brokerage* per Lot Rs. 50.00
* Subject to restrictions of SEBI/Exchange guidelines.
COMMODITY
FUTURESOPTIONS
First day1st leg2nd legAny OtherFirst day1st leg2nd legAny Other
(Non sqoff)(intraday)(intraday)(Day)(Non sqoff)(intraday)(intraday)(Day)
0.10000.10000.00000.1000 0.1% 0.1% 0% 1%
Minimum Brokerage per Lot Rs. 0.00
CURRENCY
FUTURESOPTIONS
First day1st leg2nd legAny OtherFirst day1st leg2nd legAny Other
(Non sqoff)(intraday)(intraday)(Day)(Non sqoff)(intraday)(intraday)(Day)
0.10000.10000.00000.1000 0.1% 0.1% 0% 2.5%
Minimum Brokerage per Lot Rs. 0.00

Some books available in PDF format and seemingly out of copyright: [1]COMMON SENSE STOCK SPECULATION: A treatise on stock speculation and investment, including the experiences of successful traders - by MAURICE COWEN [2]THIS IS THE ROAD TO STOCK MARKET SUCCESS by SEAMANS-BLAKE [3]Tidal Swings of the Stock Market by Scribner Browne [4]The Stock Market Barometer by William Peter Hamilton. [5]Profitable Stock Exchange Investments by Henry Voorce Brandenburg & Co.


Criteria to Select Stocks for FNO Trades in NSE

SEBI defines, monitors and refines the criteria. As per last update in 2018 and valid in 2022, following criteria apply to enter or remain into Future and Option trading category.

  1. Top 500 stocks: based on average daily market capitalisation and the average daily traded value computed on the 16th of each month, on a rolling basis
  2. Average daily market capitalization - part of calculation to appear among top 500 stocks
  3. Average daily traded value - part of calculation to appear among top 500 stocks
  4. The market wide position limit [20% of the free float market capitalisation of a stock and if stock is already in FNO trade it includes positions in futures and options ] in the security ≥ Rs. 500 crores on a rolling basis
  5. Median quarter sigma (σ/4) order size values ≥ INR 25 lakh where standard deviation (σ) is Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA)
  6. The average daily deliverable value ≥ Rs. 10 crores in the previous six months on a rolling basis
Free float market capitalisation: non-promotors' holdings. At the end of the day, outstanding positions in a security should not exceed 95% of this 20% limit.

If an existing security fails to meet aforesaid continued eligibility criteria for 3 consecutive months, then no fresh month contract shall be issued on that security. However, the existing contracts may be permitted to trade till expiry and new strikes may be introduced in the existing contract months.


NIFTY50 PE Ratio

Reference: nseindia.com/products/content/equities/indices/historical_pepb.htm

Books on Technical Analysis and Candlestick Charting

These are economical editions for Indian sub-continent in the price range INR 450~700/-
  1. How to Make Money Trading Derivatives by Ashwini Gujral
  2. Technical Analysis of Stock Trends - by Robert D. Edwards and John Magee
  3. Candlestick Charting Explained - by Morris and Litchfield
  4. Martin Pring on Market Momentum - by Martin Pring

Stock Market Propaganda

  1. FII and DII make the maket move high or low - FII और DII मेकट को उच्च या निम्न स्तर पर ले जाते हैं
  2. Mostly option sellers make money-ज्यादातर विकल्प विक्रेता पैसा कमाते हैं
  3. Long term investment is guaranteed to be profitable-दीर्घकालिक निवेश लाभदायक होने की गारंटी है
  4. A share having Price-Earning (PE) ratio > 50 is still a value buying
  5. The stock market advisers do not give full picture - they do not easily share timeline for their predictions and most of the levels are based on 1:1 reward-risk ratio
Explanation to number 3. Refer the report prepared by NSE (www1.nseindia.com/content/indices/ind_nifty50.pdf). Although the method followed to arrived at the numbers are not described, let's take these number on the face value. Some questions are not answered about what and how much return was generated by companies who were once part of NSE and went bust (Yesbank, Suzlon, JP Associates, Reliance Communications, Idea Cellular...) and how was it accounted for? How does the return account for the debt the companies have on their books? यद्यपि गणना करने के लिए प्रयुक्त विधि का वर्णन नहीं किया गया है, आइए इन संख्याओं को जैसा कि सूचित किया गया मूल्य पर लें। कुछ प्रश्नों के उत्तर नहीं हैं जैसे कि जो कंपनियां कभी एनएसई का हिस्सा थीं और बंद हो गईं (यसबैंक, सुजलॉन, जेपी एसोसिएट्स, रिलायंस कम्युनिकेशंस, आइडिया सेल्युलर ...) ने क्या और कितना प्रतिफल दिया और इसका आकलन कैसे लगाया गया? कंपनियों के बही-खातों में उनके कर्ज को कैसे लेखाबद्ध किया गया है?

NSE Return as on 2022

जैसा कि आप देख सकते हैं, वार्षिक रूप से गणना की गई आय 11.3% है, जिसकी गणना 22-अप्रैल-1996 को 1000 के प्रारंभिक मूल्य से (लगभग 26.5 वर्ष) एनएसई के 31-अक्टूबर-22 के स्तर पर की जा सकती है। हालांकि, यह एक बड़ा औसत है और व्यक्तिगत शेयरों ने उच्च आय दिया होगा (say 25% वार्षिक चक्रवृद्धि के रूप में )। As you can see, the return computed yearly is 11.3% which can be calculated based on NSE level on 31-Oct-22 (approx 26.5 years) after initial value of 1000 on 22-Apr-1996. However, this is grand average and individual stocks would have given higer returns (as high as 25% annually compounded).

However, the fact remains valid that over very long time interval, the rate of return reduces as compared to the selective and partially hidden values projected in media over short term (3 ~ 5 years). हालाँकि, यह तथ्य निर्विवाद है कि बहुत लंबे समय के अंतराल पर आय की दर कम अवधि (3 ~ 5 वर्ष) में मीडिया में प्रस्तुत/मुद्रित "चयनात्मक और आंशिक रूप से छिपे हुए" आय की तुलना में कम होती है।

A graphical view to demonstrate magic of compounding is shown in the chart below. Notice the impact of Rate of Return (ROR) on the wealth multiplier. Notice how a moderate 10% return compounded annually multiplies your wealth 10-times over 25 years and a 12.5% return ends up growing your money 18 times over 25 years - one should not look beyond this timeframe as explained with an example below. If you extrapolate the data up to 40 years and rate of return up to 15%, the return starts getting to unrealstic levels. The impact of tax and inflation is not reflected here.

Magic of Compounding

No industry or a company can continue growing at fast pace for duration more than 25 years - this is not due to any issue with that particular company but time available for competition to get a foothold is enough to keep the growth of all participants in check. Following example of General Electric shall tell you the story: GE being a pioneer and well-diversified conglomerate has given around 15 fold return over a period of 40 years.

GE Historical Prices 1983-2023

What about those who invested in 1995 or in 2005? There are few (can be many) exceptions though such as Apple which has given return of more than 900 times over the same period (40 years) between 1983 to mid-2023 and Microsoft has given return of over 3400 times over 35 years between 1986 to mid-2023. General Motors (one of the top 3 automotive players in world's biggest automotive market) has not given even 100% return over 12 years during the period 2010 ~ mid-2023.

GM Historical Prices 2010-2023


Virtual Money in Stock Market Valuations: the stock price is not a linear function of number of stock being bought or sold.

Full-market capitalization: includes both active (available for day-to-day trading) and inactive shares (such as locked-in shares, those held by insiders, promoters, and governments).

Free-float Market Cap: method excludes locked-in shares, such as those held by insiders, promoters, and government and is based on shares readily available in the market.

Some data as on 21-Apr-2023 of NSE stocks:

NameShares TotalShares Free-Float% Free-FloatTrade VolumeTrade % of Free Float% Price Change
TCS3,65,90,51,3731,02,51,34,38128%19,29,1840.188%+ 1.75%
LT1,40,54,82,1901,20,88,39,07886%10,09,3160.083%- 0.80%
HDFCBANK5,57,97,42,7864,41,48,51,34179%1,00,64,3090.228%+ 0.10%
ADANIENT1,14,00,01,121 27,37,52,10024%20,90,8330.764%- 2.22%

Can you draw an inference from this information?


Jargons in Stock Market Trading

By design and by attributes, stock markets are 'manipulative' in nature and one should not complain that bigger players control it. Some of the terms which are very frequently used are: Bull Trap, Bear Raid, Momentum, Oversold, Overbought, Support, Resistance, Double-Top, Double-Bottom, Bottom Fishing, Indicators, Pivot Point, Trend Reversal, Consolidation, Accumulation, Distribution... Trend is your friend until there is a bend in the end!


Passive Income

Sources of Passive Income

It is always (with some exceptions) desirable to have source(s) of passive income(s) to enable an individual follow the course he wishes to. However, such sources are not easy to put in place or scale up in terms of value. Some of such options with associated constraints are tabulated below. यह हमेशा वांछनीय होता है (कुछ अपवादों के साथ) की निष्क्रिय आय का स्रोत होना हर उस व्यक्ति के लिए आवश्यक है जो अपना जीवन अपनी शर्तों पर जीना चाहता है। हालांकि, ऐसे स्रोतों को मूल्य के संदर्भ में जगह देना या मापना आसान नहीं है। संबंधित बाधाओं के साथ ऐसे कुछ विकल्प नीचे सारणीबद्ध हैं। Note that passive income is not same as self-employment or freelancing.

S. No.DescriptionCompetition or Entry Barrier Required Skills Required Infrastructure Expected Return or Recurring Income
001Invest in share market, bondsNone Selection of stocksDemat account and investible cash10% annualized on > 10 years basis
002Tuition to kids, Ebooks, create and sell coursesCrowded marketHandling kids and their attentionTeaching material, hand-outs, videos, online streaming tools, Ebooks can have just 30-50 pages-?-
003Webinar on niche topicsBig tech companies already presentIt is difficult to get many topics which make you stand-outPresentations, hand-outs, videos, online streaming tools-?-
004Make Reviews of BooksRequires solid credentials to get noticedExperience in writing essaysTime to read and thinkLow volume, low income
005Write Articles for Webpages (blogging)Crowded segementRequires solid credentials to get noticedMinimal: internet connection and laptopHigh volume, low income
006Make Product Reviews Crowded segments Needs to know multiple products Minimal: internet connection and laptop, video recording devicesHigh volume, low income

ये इक्कीसवीं सदी में सूचना प्रौद्योगिकी और तेजी से बदलती प्रौद्योगिकी के युग के सैकड़ों विकल्पों में से कुछ उदाहरण हैं। इनमें से कई में पूर्णकालिक नौकरी के बराबर बहुत अधिक ऊर्जा और समय की आवश्यकता होती है और इसलिए वे निष्क्रिय स्रोत बिल्कुल नहीं हो सकते हैं। या तो आप पहले ही काम दे दें या अपने पिछले काम को अपने लिए पैसे कमाने दें। कुछ उत्पाद, कुछ पाठ्यक्रम, कुछ इ-बुक निष्क्रिय आय के स्थिर स्रोत नहीं बन सकते हैं। These are some of the examples of hundreds of option available in twenty-first century dominated with information technology and era of fast changing technology. Many of these require lot of energy and time equivalent to full-time job and hence they may not be passive source at all. Either you give work upfront or let your past work earn money for you. Few of anything such few products, few courses, few e-books do not make steady sources of passive income.

The Public Provident Fund fetches 7.1% return in 2023 and this is exempt from income tax irrespetive of the tax rate and income value. This is equivalent to approx. 10% of income subject to tax. However, the constraint is limit of INR 1,50,000 per year per person. The return from dividends from listed companies in India is approx 1.0% of current market price (unless you have invested 20~30 years ago). The rental income of a house having market value of INR 1.0 crore is maximum in the limit of 4.8 lakh per month. This income is taxable in normal tax bracket. Thus, the yield turns out to be approx. 3.0%. As can be seen from these examples, the returns from many passive sources of investment are nominal and sometimes fall below the inflation limit. However, the brighter side of such investments lies in the large accumulation over a period of time resulting in high value of portfolio.

Unless one inherit large sum of capital, any passive income has to necessarily follow some duration of active income to create a portfolio which is a mix of liquid investments. Just set aside 20 - 25% of you actove income for 10 years and see the magic.

Any source of passive income should account for inflation, depreciation, taxes and maintenance costs. Fixed deposits, at low interest rate periods, are not a passive source of income if you account for 20% tax on interest and inflation. Investment in physical gold may always be at least inflation beating income as it is still the standard to benchmark various assets.

If a source of passive income is generated from an investment made from loan, total repayment over the duration of loan should also account for net repayment. The example calculator shown below can be used. The assumption is fixed rate of interest of the entire repayment duation and no partial pre-payment.

loan Repayment calc

Principal amount in INR Lakh: Rate of Interest (in %):  
Repayment Tenure of the loan in months:
EMI in INR:
Total Repayment (INR) Lakh: Total Repayment - Interest (INR) Lakh:

⚉ My Mistakes ⚉

चार्ट पढ़ने के बारे में मेरी कुछ गलतियाँ या गलतफहमियाँ नीचे संक्षेप में दी गई हैं। इनमें से कितने आपको परिचित लगते हैं? Some of the mistakes or misunderstanding I had about reading charts are summarized below. How many of these sound familiar to you?
  1. Guessing or assuming that the price may not move much further if oscillators [RSI and Stochastics] are in (so-called) overbought or oversold zones यह अनुमान लगाना या मान लेना कि ऑसिलेटर्स [RSI और Stochastic] अगर (तथाकथित) ओवरबॉट या ओवरसोल्ड ज़ोन में हैं तो कीमत बहुत आगे नहीं बढ़ सकती है
  2. Getting fully invested - no [margin] money was left to invest or hedge the position in case trades swung wildly against my positions
  3. Not waiting for moving averages to cross and price stay below STMA [Short Term Moving Average] few ticks
  4. Assuming signals for candlestick to be valid for many weeks. As per many authors, the candlestick patterns are valid only for few [2-5] time intervals
  5. Relying on too many indicators: once I used to follow RSI, MFI, Stochastics, ADX, Bollinger Band and MACD in addition to moving averages

Most of the time, the retail investors behave like the parrots described in this short story.

लघु कथा के अनुसार एक बहेलिया बहुत सारे तोते जाल में फंसा कर ले जाता था। साधु बाबा को ये देखकर बहुत दुख होता था। एक दिन साधु बाबा ने तोतों को शिक्षा देना आरंभ किया। बहेलिया आयेगा, दाना डालेगा, जाल बिछाएगा। तुम जाल में मत फँसना। तोते कुछ ही दिनों में रटने लगे: "बहेलिया आयेगा, दाना डालेगा, जाल बिछाएगा, तुम जाल में मत फँसना"। ये देखकर साधु बाबा बहुत खुश हुए। अब बहेलिया आया दाना डालकर जाल बिछाने लगा। साधु बाबा मन ही मन खुश हो रहे थे। कि मैंने सभी तोतों को शिक्षा दे दी अब तोते जाल में फँसेंगे नहीं। ये सोचते हुए नहाने चले गए। जब साधु बाबा नहाकर लौट रहे थे तभी बहेलिया रास्ते में मिला। बहेलिया के कंधे पर जाल था। जाल में सभी तोते फँसे हुए थे। वे अभी भी रट रहे थे "बहेलिया आएगा, दाना डालेगा, जाल बिछाएगा, तुम जाल में मत फँसना।"


⚡ Caveats ⚡

"Mind freeze" is a very common phenomena when price moves quickly and strongly against your position. You first go into "Hope Mode" and then "Wait Mode" finally exiting at deep losses once you reach in "Fear Mode". जब कीमतें तेजी से और मजबूती से आपकी पोजीशन के खिलाफ चलती हैं तो माइंड फ्रीज होना एक बहुत ही सामान्य घटना है। आप पहले "आशा अवस्था" में जाते हैं और फिर "प्रतीक्षा अवस्था" में एक बार जब आप "डर की अवस्था" में पहुँच जाते हैं तो अंत में बहुत नुकसान होता है।
  • Do not pay attention to the news, they are to justify the market actions. News has no prediction potential for stock price movement - only higher volatility can be expected when an important news such as quarterly result, RBI monetary policy... are to be announced.
  • Credit rating agencies and brokerage house play it safe and may have their own vested interest. It is worth playig opposite to their findings (sell rating implies time is ripe for slow accumulation and vice versa).
  • Trading process by its design is a negative-sum game. In other words, trading is always a "win-lose" situation and never a "win-win" or "lose-lose" situation.
  • Insider trading is not illegal in its entirety and can be easily circumvented!
  • Crashes change the players!
  • Failing to plan is planing to fail! However, not all decisions are made with checklists - let your instinct and heuristics take over sometimes.

⊚ Option Trade Stop-Loss Calculator ⊚

As the primium of an option is not a linear function of spot price of underlying asset, the calculation of stop-loss for option trade needs calculation of delta and gamma at entry price and expected exit price of the underlying asset (stock or index). In the calculator below, the stop-loss level can be used to find exit (take profit level) as well. Divident Yield is assumed ZERO for this calculator. An uncertainty of 10% has been added to the premium value for exit or stop-loss. One may use upstox.com/calculator/option-value or at zerodha.com/tools/black-scholes or from motilaloswal.com/calculators/option-value-calculator

Spot Price: Days to Expiry (days):ROI:
Strike Price:Option TypeLot SizeTrade Type Premium
Implied Volatility: Entry Premium:
Exit Level: Delta - Strike:
Gamma - Strike: Approx. Square-Off Premium

Note that the delta for call is positive is a sign convection. Actual effect depends on your position: buy or sell. Thus, if you have sold a call option, its delta would be negative in your portfoli and vice versa. Same for put options. This principal is used to make strategies like delta-neutral, delta-positive or delta-negative portfolio or positions.

Note that option pricing is not symmetric for call and put which has been demonstrated in a table in later section of this page.

Formula of Options Greeks


RRRRR

Rate of Return and Risk-Reward Ratio: How many trades you need to earn a pre-defined monthly income? Refresh page to clear the data. Or update inputs and click Submit to re-calculate. ROCE = Return of Capital Employed

DescriptionUOM Option - 1Option - 2Option - 3
Monthly Income Expected*INR
No. or Trading Days**No.
Willing Risk per TradeINR
Planned Risk-Reward Ratio-
Likelyhood: % Winning Trade%
% ROCE per Trade%
Number of Winning TradesNo.
Number of Losing TradesNo.
Profit from Winning TradesINR
Loss from Losing TradesINR
EBITINR
Ave. DAILY Trades RequiredNo.
Daily Capital RequiredINR [Lakh]
Click on 'Submit' button to update the table
* before applicable tax, ** how many days per month you want to trade [max 22]. Refresh page to clear the data. Or update inputs and click Submit to re-calculate.

Beware of Propaganda and Half-Truths Hidden in News: Broking firms, institutions and individual market experts who cannot sense brewing issues in a particular bank say Yesbank in India or SVB in USA will suddenly turn into a maverick fortune-teller and self-proclaimed expert on entire banking industry and its immediate outlook. Just think the propaganda: An obscure and unknwon bank (SVB) suddenly became the biggest bank failure in USA history! When the price of a share corrects more than 50% from its peak, the so called market expert shall start advising investors to exit. Try to make a chronological history of the buy/sell recommendations by these "market experts" with the spot price of that share and the sheer propaganda to lure retail investors will become clear.

Economic Propaganda: Profit = Plunder - in reality Profit ≠ Plunder, Inequality = Poverty - in reality Inequality ≠ Poverty. Propaganda: Equality of Opportunity = Equality of Outcome, in real life - Equality of Opportunity ≠ Equality of Outcome. Forecasts: verify key assumptions, key variables considered, moeny trails, political and/or institutional affiliation of the group making forecasts. Myth: Governments do not need to repay the debts, they need to only service the debt. In reality, one generation or few consecutive generations of tax-payers have to bear the brunt when government chose to waive off the loans. Myth: Government can raise tax revenue. In reality, governments can only raise tax rates, tax brackets and range of taxable items & services.


Trade Lifecycle of Stocks

Let's monitor from start of an IPO (when companies sell certain number of shares at certain price to the public):
  1. X number of shares allotted each to A, B, C, D, E investors at price P0. Total shares= 5X
  2. A sold it to F at price P1: A's profit/loss = P1 - P0
  3. D sold it to G at price P2: D's profit/loss = P2 - P0
  4. F sold it to K at price P3: F's profit/loss = P3 - P1
As one continues tracking the transactions in a particular share, it is a negative-sum situation unless the profit generated by the company is accounted for. The profit generated by the company results in dividends, bonus and business expansions.

Delta Calculator

Following entries can be used to calculate delta for up to 5 strike prices for a given spot-price. The default values are: Rate of Interest (ROI) = 5.0% per annum, Implied Volatility = 20 [%] and Dividend Yield = 0 [%]. In order to omit calculation in any row, specify lot size = 0. As an option trader, most of the money is earned through time decay and hence one should try to be delta neutral with only small bias in the anticipated direction of price movement.

Spot Price: Days to Expiry (days): ROI:
IV: Option Type Lot Size Trade Type Delta Values
Strike Price-1: Delta-1:
Strike Price-2: Delta-2:
Strike Price-3: Delta-3:
Strike Price-4: Delta-4:
Strike Price-5: Delta-5:
Net Delta:

In todays [2022] days, most of the brokerage service providers have online tools to calculate Greeks and Margins for options trades. Few screenshots are shared below to show the impact of far OTM covered position on margins required for writing [selling] options.

Margin Naked Call

The example above is for naked option short position and the example below is for covered call position.

Margin Covered Call

Note that a deep In-the-Money [ITM] option has very poor liquidity [not many buyers/sellers are available and high gap between bid and ask prices] and most of the time trade at discount. Hence, carrying forward such position is like an NPA and should not be traded.

Trading Basics

One should know how to place Limit Orders, Stop-loss Orders, Trailing Stop-Loss Orders and Bracket Orders. If a limit order is partially executed, do not modify and re-order. The new modify order will maintain the original quantity and discard the partially executed quantity. For example, you place limit order to buy 10 numbers of a stock, 5 numbers were bought and then modifing that trade will result in total purchase of 10 + 5 = 15 numbers.

paired Order Options

If you are used to place naked options, try to make a rule to place orders in pairs. Specify the limit prices 2-3 Rupees higher or lower (as per the order type) so that both the orders get executed instantly. Check the 1 minute or 5 minute chart to ensure prices are not oscillating much on lower timeframes.


Interest Rate Return Table

Following table gives an idea on interest rate and time required for money to double (100% return) and triple (200% return). The information can be used to benchmark the return from an stock market.

Rate of Interest Time (in Years) to DOUBLE when compunded Time (in Years) to TRIPLE when compunded
AnnualMonthlyQuarterlyAnnuallyMonthlyQuarterlyAnnually
4%17.3617.4217.6727.5127.6028.01
5%13.8913.9514.2122.0222.1122.52
6%11.5811.6411.9018.3618.4518.85
7%9.9319.98810.2415.7415.8316.24
8%8.6938.7519.00613.7813.8714.27
9%7.7307.7888.04312.2512.3412.75
10%6.9607.0187.27311.0311.1211.53
11%6.3306.3886.64210.0310.1210.53
12%5.8055.8626.1169.2019.2929.694
13%5.3615.4185.6718.4978.5878.989
14%4.9805.0375.2907.8937.9848.385
15%4.6504.7074.9597.3707.4617.861
16%4.3614.4184.6706.9127.0037.402
17%4.1064.1634.4156.5086.5996.997
18%3.8803.9374.1886.1496.2406.638
19%3.6773.7343.9855.8285.9186.316
20%3.4953.5523.8025.5395.6296.026

Concepts

Fixed Income Option: Fixed income securities are investment where the cash flows are according to a predetermined amount of interest, paid on a fixed schedule. Popularly known as Debt instrument. In addition to fixed deposits with bankd, the different types of fixed income securities include government securities, corporate bonds, Treasury Bills, Commercial Paper. In broader terms Corporate bonds are fixed income securities issued by corporates i.e. entities other than Government. Public sector units, Banks, corporates, Financial Institutions are major issuer of corporate bonds. In NSE, the private placement securities are listed and traded in WDM segment of the Exchange. Public issues are listed and traded in CM segment of the Exchange.
  • Fixed Rate Bonds:-have a coupon that remains constant throughout the life of the bond.
  • Floating Rate Bonds: - Coupon rates are reset periodically based on benchmark rate.
  • Zero-coupon Bonds no coupons are paid. The bond is issued at a discount to its face value, at which it will be redeemed. There are no intermittent payments of interest.

The % change in price of bonds is smaller than that of stocks as bond requires definite amount of money to be paid to the bond-holder (less risk) whereas holding stocks of a company merely represents the participation in proportionate fraction in the profits of the company after interest on bonds and dividend on preferential shares issued by the company.

T-Bill is a money market instrument to finance the short term requirements of the Government of India (GOI). The returns on T-Bill instrument shall be difference between the par value and issue price / traded price. T-Bills are issued at discount in primary auction conducted by Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Negotiated Dealing System - Order Matching (NDS-OM) is a platform provided by RBI to trade T-Bills in secondary market. Yield is the income (return) on an investment usually expressed as a % annual return. Yield can be quoted as Yield to Maturity (YTM) = [Par Value - Market Price]/[Market Price] x 365/[Actual Days] or Discount Yield (DY) = [Par Value - Market Price] / [Par Value] x 360/[Actual Days].

T-Bill FAQ

Excerpts from a news article: In Treasury markets, the gap between five-year notes and 30-year bonds fell below 100 basis points after the Fed policy statement to the lowest level since July 2020. A narrower gap could indicate factors like economic uncertainty, easing inflation concerns and anticipation of tighter monetary policy.

Excerpt from Investopedia.com: Treasury bonds (T-bonds) are government debt securities issued by the U.S. Federal government that have maturities of 20 or 30 years. T-bonds earn periodic interest until maturity, at which point the owner is also paid a par amount equal to the principal.


Stock Price Variations


Daily Price Bands

Daily price bands are applicable on securities as below. For Auction market the price bands of 20% are applicable. Scrips on which no derivatives products are available but which are part of Index Derivatives, are also subjected to price bands.
  • Group-1: Daily price bands of 2% (either way)
  • Group-2: Daily price bands of 5% (either way)
  • Group-3: Daily price bands of 10% (either way)
  • Group-4: No price bands are applicable on scrips on which derivative products are available. In order to prevent members from entering orders at non-genuine prices (typing or data entry errors) in such securities, the Exchange has fixed operating range of 10%.
  • Group-5: Price bands of 20% (either way) on all remaining scrips (including debentures, preference shares...).

Data, Data and Data

NSE IPO list from 1999 to 2015: This spreadsheet contains the issue data and issue price.

FII-FPI trade data: refer to NSDL website at www.fpi.nsdl.co.in/web/Reports/Latest.aspx.

Since FII and FPI may trade on both NSE and BSE, the turn-over data from NSE may not be sufficient to estimate what fraction of trading volume is contributed by FII/FPI. Refer to the following data for trades on 31-May-2019.

NSE Turnover on 31-May-2019

As reported, total trades value by FII/FPI is 7,552 + 5,480 = INR 13,032 Crores which is 33% of total traded value in equities on NSE.

FII/FPI cash trade volume 31-May-2019

The turnover data on NSE for stock futures is INR 59,013 Crores where the FII/FPI contribution is 24,387 + 23,362 = INR 47,749 Crores which is almost 80% of the total trades. Similarly, the turnover data on NSE for index futures is INR 32,151 Crores where the FII/FPI contribution is 8,208 + 5,986 = INR 14,194 Crores approximately 40% of total traded value.

FII/FPI derivative trade volume on 31-May-2019


Candlesticks Summary

Candlestick in stock price charts

Candlesticks: Work only at Support / Resistance Level and reflect 'personality' of a stock - back testing with historical data is a necessity! Long candles = buy/sell pressure, short = consolidation.

Candlestick TypeNext Verification CandleProbabilityAnticipated Move
HammerGap-up opening next day ending in a MarubozuHighBullish Reversal after significant downtrend
Morning Star or Abandoned Baby (Evening Star)Very potent as combination of > 2 candlesHighReversal after significant trending market
Three White Soldier (3 Black Crow)Doji or Bearish (Bullish) EngulfingHighEarly phase of trend reversal
Piercing CandleFirst bearish candle with large body, high EOD volumeHighBullish Reversal after significant downtrend
Dark Cloud CoverHeavy volume during opening of 2nd dayHighReversal after significant uptrend
Long Marubozu / Belt-HoldShort Marubozu or Spinning TopModerateTrend Reversal / continuation
Harami or Petrifying patternGap up near bottom or gap down near topModerateDecrease in momentum
DojiGap-down opening or formed after long candleModerateTrend interruption / slowing momentum
Shooting StarGap-down opening next day ending in a MarubozuModerateBearish Reversal after significant uptrend
Bullish (Bearish) EngulfingVolume on 2nd day, more potent if left stick is a DojiModerateReversal in trading market

Automotive sales data

auotmotive sales data in table

auotmotive sales data in chart

Monthly data INR vs. USD chart


Adapted from MOOC: Elements of AI by University of Helsinki

Probability in trading: We all need to guess the market direction and the impact of news on stock prices. From technical analysis perspective, an "informed guess" is analogous of estimating the probability. A key caveat about 'probability' that it is not probability calculus. Instead, it is the ability to think of uncertainty as a thing that can be quantified at least in principle. This means that we can and should be able talk about uncertainty as if it were a number: numbers can be compared ("is this event more probable than that even") and they can often be measured. Measuring probabilities is difficult and not unique method exists: we usually need many observations about a phenomenon to draw conclusions. However, by systematically collecting data, we can critically evaluate probabilistic statements, and our numbers can sometimes be found to be right or wrong. In other words, the key lesson is that uncertainty is not beyond the scope of rational thinking and discussion, and probability provides a systematic way of doing just that.


Elaboration by example:

A pattern analysis forecasts that the price is is going to increase by 2% with 75% probability tomorrow but the day turns out to be drop in price by 1%. Can it be concluded that the forecasting capability of this particular method is not good?

We can't conclude that the forecast was wrong based on only single event. The forecast said stock price is going to increase with 70% probability, which means price may drop or increase by lesser percentage with 25% probability or in one out of 4 days. It is reasonable to accept that the day in question was the 1 in 4 event. Concluding that the probability 75% was correct would also be wrong because by the same argument, we could then conclude that 50% chance of price increase by 2% was also correct and both cannot be correct at the same time.


Historical charts of Gold

gold Price 2004 to 2012

gold Price 2010 to 2018

The dialemma of long term investing is clearly visible from following chart.

Monthly price change in silver


Historical Price of Brent Crude

Brent crude Price 201 to 2018


Historical data of NIFTY50 stocks and description of some MS-Excel based tools are summarized below.


Filters and Scans in Trade Tiger

To filter for unusual activity in futures and option (sharp rise or fall in OI). Unusual option activity before key events typically represent insider information. An increase in CALL option OI at ask-price (seller's price) is bullish, an increase in CALL option OI as bid-price (buyer's price) is bearish. Similarly, an increase in PUT option OI at ask-price (seller's price) is bearish, an increase in PUT option OI as bid-price (buyer's price) is bullish.

OI scan in Trade Tiger

Scan for stock based on your own pre-defined criteria

OI scan in Trade Tiger


Some rules of stock market movement:
  • The market direction rarely turns on a dime! It takes lot of time and energy to reverse the direction. Investors are like mules who take lot of pain before admitting defeat!
  • Stock market and physics: price is displcement, rate of change of price (ROC) is velocity, moving averages are inertia (mass), indicator like RSI is momentum - combined effect of mass and velocity (index - a train moving at slow / high speed, stocks - a motorcycle moving at slow / high speed).
  • Trend is your friend until there is bend in the end! If weekly moving average (inertia or mass) is down, a move on daily chart against this direction may be a trap unless key supply zone or resistance levels are broken decisively.

View as on 13-Dec-2017

NIFTY50 weekly RSI


Technical analysis works, but market does retreat to some levels governed by fundamentals specially earning ratios. Combined "price earning ratio" of the stocks comprising the index is one such variable. In very simple terms, if you get 5% interest on your fixed deposits (FD), the PE ratio of your FD is 100/5 = 20. Similarly, if a stock is trading at 1000 Rupees and it generates profit of 20 Rupees per share in a year, its PE ratio is 1000/20 = 50.

NIFTY PE trading above previous year highs and a retracement is very likely.

Option Trading

There are only following 8 basic purposes of any option trade. One of these will be appropriate depending upon market conditions.

Option Type Trade Type Purpose(s)
CALL Buy Speculation:
Bullish Outlook
Hedging:
  • Either short-sell in stock or futures
  • Or short position (bearish speculation) in lower strike CALL
CALL Sell Speculation:
Bearish Outlook
Hedging:
  • Either long in stock or futures
  • Or buy position (bullish speculation) in lower strike CALL
PUT Buy Speculation:
Bearish Outlook
Hedging:
  • Either long in stock or futures
  • Or short position (bullish speculation) in higher strike PUT
PUT Sell Speculation:
Bullish Outlook
Hedging:
  • Either short in stock or futures
  • Or buy position (bearish speculation) in higher strike PUT

Greeks

Delta

δ: The delta of an option is defined as the rate of change of the option price (preimium), Π with respect to the rate of change of underlying asset (stock, commodity, forex) price, S. Mathemtically, δ = dΠ/dS and for small changes in prices, δ = ΔΠ/ΔS. The calculation of option premium based on change in stock price and δ is correct ony for small changes in price say up to 5%. For large swing in price the impact of gamma, γ needs to be taken into consideration.

Option typePosition typeδ
CallLong (Buy)+
CallShort (Sell)-
PutLong (Buy)-
PutShort (Sell)+

Gamma

The gamma of an option is defined as the rate of change of δ respected to the rate of change of underlying asset price: Γ = dδ/dS. Thus,

change in option premium = δ × change in stock price + 1/2 × Γ × (change in stock price)2


Theta

It is rate of change of the option price (premium) with respective to the passage of time. Following two tables and charts demonstrates the variation of premium (rather the decay in premium) normalized by difference between spot and strike prices.

Option Premium Decay 2.5%

Option Premium Decay 5.0%

Application of greeks. In practice the interaction or trade-off between these parameters is required to correctly estimate the premium and take benefit of expected change in option price.

  • Change in stock prices result in higher value of the option price when gamma is positive and large. This means that when there is no change in stock prices, the value of the option will decline towards the expiration date.
  • On the other hand, change in stock prices result in lower option value when gamma is negative and large. This means that when there is no change in stock price, the value of the option will increases towards the expiration and theta is positive.
  • Hence, a trade-off between gamma and theta should be worked out so that they can be used as proxy for each other in a delta neutral portfolio.
OutlookDescriptionBuyBuySellSellRemarkL:Lim/U:Unlim, Time ErosionProfit ProbabilityVega Strategy, Desired IV LevelDebit / Credit
BullishNaked Short Put--Put-ITM / OTML / U ! ++High: >90%- Vega | HighCredit
Bull Put SpreadOTM Put-ITM Put-Put credit spreadL / L ! -High: >90%- Vega | HighCredit
Long ComboOTM Call-OTM Put-U / U ! -Med: ~50%- Vega | High-
Synthetic Long CallStock / FUTRPut--Protective putU / L ! -Med: ~50%+ Vega | LowDebit
Synthetic Long-CallPut-same strk/maturityU / U ! -Med: ~50%+ Vega | Low-
Bull Call Spread(ITM) Call-(OTM) Call-Vert. Bull SpreadL / L ! +Low: <10%+ Vega | LowDebit
Call Backspread(Hi Strk) Call(Hi Strk) Call(Lo Strk) Call-Ratio Call SpreadU / L ! -Low: <10%+ Vega | LowDebit
Naked Long CallCall---ITM / OTMU / L ! --Low: <10%+ Vega | LowDebit
BearishNaked Short Call--Call-ITM / OTML / U ! ++High: >90%- Vega | HighCredit
Covered Put--Stock / FUTROTM PutL / U ! -High: >90%- Vega | HighCredit
Synthetic Long PutCall-Stock / FUTR-L / L ! -Low: <10%+ Vega | LowCredit
Bear Call SpreadOTM Call-ITM Call-Call Credit SpreadL / L ! +Low: <10%- Vega | HighCredit
Bear Put SpreadITM Put-OTM Put-Vert. Bear SpreadL / L ! -Low: <10%+ Vega | LowDebit
Naked Long PutPut---ITM / OTMU / L ! --Low: <10%+ Vega | LowDebit
Put Backspread(Lo Strk) Put(Lo Strk) Put(Hi Strk) Put-Ratio Put SpreadU / L ! -Low: <10%+ Vega | LowDebit
NeutralShort Straddle--CallPutsame strk/maturityL / U ! ++High: >90%- Vega | HighCredit
Short Strangle--OTM CallOTM Putsame strk/maturityL / U ! ++High: >90%- Vega | HighCredit
Long Call ButterflyITM CallOTM CallATM CallATM CallL / L ! +High: >90%NeutralCredit
Short Call ButterflyATM CallATM CallITM CallOTM CallL / L ! +High: >90%NeutralCredit
Iron CondorITM CallOTM CallITM CallOTM CallL / L ! +High: >90%NeutralCredit
Covered CallStock-OTM Call-Covered WriteL / U ! +High: >90%- Vega | HighDebit
Long StraddleCallPut--same strk/maturityU / L ! --High: >90%+ Vega | LowDebit
Long StrangleOTM CallOTM Put--same strk/maturityU / L ! --Low: <10%+ Vega | LowDebit
Covered StrangleStock / FTR-Sell CallSell PutStock b/w call/putL / U ! -Low: <10%+ Vega | LowDebit
CollarStock / FUTRPutCall-L / L ! +Low: <10%+ Vega | LowDebit

The adjective 'unlimited' is used to exaggerate the extent of loss or gain and it does not represented mathematical 'infinity'. For example, if you sell a PUT for NIFTY with strike price of 20,000 at premium of INR 100, even if NIFTY reduce by half in that expiry, you loss is limited to (10,000 - 100) x 25 = 2,25,000. Though is is a significantly high multiple of loss or gain (99 times), it is not 'unlimited'. Hence, it is always prudent to trade covered options.

Assymetry in Option Pricing

As you can see from the table, the premium for deep in-the-money (ITM) put options are < the intrinsic values whereas for call options, the option price always remains > the intrinsic value.

SpotStrikeIVROIDYTTE Premium Intrinsic Value
CallPutCallPut
20,00020,10020.0%5.0%1.0%25 day402.45433.740.00100.00
20,00020,200356.73487.67200.00
20,00020,300314.72545.32300.00
20,00020,500241.48671.39500.00
20,00021,000114.251,042.51,000.0
20,00021,50047.641,474.11,500.0
20,00022,00017.481,942.32,000.0
20,00023,0001.622,923.03,000.0
20,00024,0000.093,918.04,000.0
20,00025,0000.004,914.55,000.0
20,00019,900505.24337.20100.000.00
20,00019,800562.30294.61200.00
20,00019,700623.10255.75300.00
20,00019,600687.55220.54400.00
20,00019,500755.54188.87500.00
20,00019,0001,142.777.761,000.0
20,00018,5001,589.225.961,500.0
20,00018,0002,068.36.812,000.0
20,00017,0003,058.30.203,000.0
20,00016,0004,054.70.004,000.0

Type of Shares in US Market

Class-A Shares: traded as common stock with 1 vote/share, Class-B: Founders and other insiders hold them - not publicly traded - 10 votes/share, Class-C: publicly traded but no voting right. Insiders: senior management, board members, people/entities having > 10% of company's stock.

The magic of compounding

Number of YearsRORReturn (Number of Times)RORReturn (Number of Times)RORReturn (Number of Times)RORReturn (Number of Times)
27.5%0.1610.0%0.2112.5%0.2715.0%0.32
37.5%0.2410.0%0.3312.5%0.4215.0%0.52
47.5%0.3410.0%0.4612.5%0.6015.0%0.75
57.5%0.4410.0%0.6112.5%0.8015.0%1.01
67.5%0.5410.0%0.7712.5%1.0315.0%1.31
77.5%0.6610.0%0.9512.5%1.2815.0%1.66
87.5%0.7810.0%1.1412.5%1.5715.0%2.06
97.5%0.9210.0%1.3612.5%1.8915.0%2.52
107.5%1.0610.0%1.5912.5%2.2515.0%3.05
117.5%1.2210.0%1.8512.5%2.6515.0%3.65
127.5%1.3810.0%2.1412.5%3.1115.0%4.35
137.5%1.5610.0%2.4512.5%3.6215.0%5.15
147.5%1.7510.0%2.8012.5%4.2015.0%6.08
157.5%1.9610.0%3.1812.5%4.8515.0%7.14
167.5%2.1810.0%3.5912.5%5.5815.0%8.36
177.5%2.4210.0%4.0512.5%6.4115.0%9.76
187.5%2.6810.0%4.5612.5%7.3315.0%11.4
197.5%2.9510.0%5.1212.5%8.3715.0%13.2
207.5%3.2510.0%5.7312.5%9.5515.0%15.4
217.5%3.5710.0%6.4012.5%10.915.0%17.8
227.5%3.9110.0%7.1412.5%12.315.0%20.6
237.5%4.2810.0%7.9512.5%14.015.0%23.9
247.5%4.6710.0%8.8512.5%15.915.0%27.6
257.5%5.1010.0%9.8312.5%18.015.0%31.9
267.5%5.5610.0%10.912.5%20.415.0%36.9
277.5%6.0510.0%12.112.5%23.115.0%42.5
287.5%6.5810.0%13.412.5%26.115.0%49.1
297.5%7.1410.0%14.912.5%29.415.0%56.6
307.5%7.7510.0%16.412.5%33.215.0%65.2
317.5%8.4110.0%18.212.5%37.515.0%75.1
327.5%9.1210.0%20.112.5%42.315.0%86.6
337.5%9.8810.0%22.212.5%47.815.0%99.7
347.5%10.710.0%24.512.5%53.915.0%115
357.5%11.610.0%27.112.5%60.715.0%132
367.5%12.510.0%29.912.5%68.415.0%152
377.5%13.510.0%33.012.5%77.115.0%175
387.5%14.610.0%36.412.5%86.915.0%202
397.5%15.810.0%40.112.5%97.815.0%232
407.5%17.010.0%44.312.5%11015.0%267

Note how the value gets multiplied when rate of return is 15%


Fundamental Analysis

Company namePeriodRevenue [INR Crores]PAT [INR Crores]Number of EmployeesAttition TTMOperating MarginNet MarginRevenue per employee*Profit per employee*
TCSQ4-2461,23712,4346,01,54612.5%26.0%20.3%10.182.067
RelianceQ3-242,27,97017,265.--12.7%7.57%
* INR Lakh per Quarter

Land Measurement System

One Dismil is equivalent to 435.6 square feet. Note that the size of localized units used for land measurement varies from state to state in India.

1 Dismil = 0.01 killa = 0.31 kattha = 6.4 dhur

1 kattha / कट्ठा = 3.125 decimal or Dismal, 1 Katha (कठ्ठा) = 20 Dhur (धुर) = 338.63 m² = 3645 sq. ft.

1 acre = 4,047 [m2] = 43,560 [ft2] = 1.60 bigha / बीघा

1 bigha = 62.51 dismil = 400 [dhur] / वर्ग धुर = 20 [kattha] = 27,220 [ft2] = 3025 sq. yard वर्ग गज

1 hectare = 10,000 [m2] = 1,07,639 [ft2] = 3.954 bigha / बीघा = 79.1 कट्ठा

दाखिल ख़ारिज: देश के किसी भी राज्‍य में संपत्ति का हस्‍तांरण एक क़ानूनी प्रक्रिया के तहत उसके कानूनी हकदार को ट्रांसफर किया जाता है। इसके तहत परिवार के मुखिया जिसके नाम पर भूमि है, को हटा कर उसके पुत्र अथवा पुत्री का नाम लैंड रिकॉर्ड में दर्ज करवाया जाता है. इसी प्रक्रिया को ही दाखिल ख़ारिज कहा जाता है. दाखिल खारिज प्रॉपर्टी म्यूटेशन का हिंदी शब्द है। यह दूसरों के नाम पर संपत्ति हस्तांतरण की प्रक्रिया है।

परिमार्जन: जमीन में सुधार की प्रक्रिया को परिमार्जन कहा जाता है। आपको अगर अपनी जमीन से संबंधित जैसे दाखिल खारिज में सुधार, जमाबंदी में सुधार, नाम पते में सुधार, खसरा, रकबा, लगान आदि में किसी भी तरह की समस्या का सामना करना पड़ता है तो परिमार्जन पोर्टल पर इसका हल मिल जाएगा। रजिस्ट्री सिर्फ ओनरशिप ट्रांसफर करने का काम करती है जबकि इसके बाद स्वामित्व देने का काम दाखिल-खारिज से होता है. जमीन की रजिस्ट्री के बाद लगभग 3 महीने के अंदर दाखिल खारिज के लिए तहसील में आवेदन देना अनिवार्य है। यदि जमीन की रजिस्ट्री कराए हुए काफी साल हो गए हैं और आपने अभी तक दाखिल खारिज नहीं करवाया है तो ऐसी कंडीशन में तहसीलदार आपकी जमीन का दाखिल खारिज करने से इनकार कर सकता है।

Land Possession Certificate (LPC), DCLR stands for Deputy Collector Land Reform. cadastral: (of a map or survey) showing the extent, value, and ownership of land, especially for taxation. Map Type: RS = Revisional Survey or Residential Suburban or Revisional Settlement, CS Map = Cadastral Survey Map. Sometimes CS means Central Settlement of 1926 and RS means Revisional Settlement of 1962. Thus, RS Map is expected to be more accurate than CS type.

रैयत एक ऐसे व्यक्ति को संदर्भित करता है जिसने सीधे सरकार के अधीन भूमि धारण करने का अधिकार प्राप्त किया है, चाहे वह धारा 44 के आधार पर या अन्यथा, मुख्य रूप से स्वयं या अपने परिवार के सदस्यों द्वारा या नौकरों की सहायता से या मजदूर, या भागीदारों या बरगदारों की सहायता से इसे खेती करने के उद्देश्य से प्राप्त किया हो।

गैरमजरूआ जमीन: वैसी जमीन जो विगत सर्वे में किसी भी रैयत को बंदोबस्त नहीं की जा सकी उसे ही गैरमजरूआ जमीन कहा जाता है। गैरमजरूआ जमीन दो तरह की होती है। गैरमजरूआ आम और खास। गैरमजरूआ आम पूर्ण रूप से सरकारी रास्ता, पहाड़ या सैरात होती है। इसकी खरीद-बिक्री नहीं हो सकती।

मौजा (Mouza) एक प्रकार के प्रशासनिक जिले या विशिष्ट भूमि क्षेत्र को रेफर करता है। यह एक प्रकार से भूमि की यूनिट की भौगोलिक अभिव्यक्ति (expression) होती है जिसका इस्तेमाल राजस्व एकत्र करने के लिए किया जाता था। सरल शब्दों में मौजा को हम गांव भी कह सकते हैं। भारतीय गांवों में एग्रीकल्चर एक्ट सीलिंग एक्ट पारित हुआ, जिसे 1970 से लागू किया गया। इसके बाद मौजा का नाम बदलकर ग्राम-तहसील कर दिया गया, जिसका नियंत्रण संबंधित राज्य के जिला कलेक्टर द्वारा किया गया।

जमाबंदी: इस रिकॉर्ड में इस बात का विवरण शामिल है कि जमीन का मालिक कौन है, कितनी जमीन है, किस अनुपात में इसका मालिक है, जमीन पर किसके पास अधिकार है, और जमीन से जुड़े अन्य हालिया घटनाक्रम हैं। यह दस्तावेज़ एक पटवारी द्वारा बनाया जाता है तथा राजस्व अधिकारी द्वारा सत्यापित किया जाता है।

खसरा संख्या (Khasra Number) भारत के भूलेखों (Land Record) में इस्तेमाल होने वाला शब्द है। खसरा (Khasra) एक फारसी शब्द है। इसे DAG संख्या के नाम से भी जाना जाता है। यह एक विशिष्ट संख्या है जो गांवों में स्थित जमीन के लिए निर्धारित की जाती है। शहरी क्षेत्रों में सर्वे नंबर या प्लॉट नंबर दिया जाता है। जब आप भूमि रिकॉर्ड को ऑनलाइन या ऑफलाइन एक्सेस करते हैं, तो आप आम तौर पर खसरा नंबरों पर आते हैं। खसरा नंबर राजस्व विभाग के अधिकारियों द्वारा सौंपा गया है। उस गाँव में उपलब्ध भूमि के प्रत्येक पार्सल को एक खसरा संख्या (Khasra Number) निर्दिष्ट करने के लिए गाँव का नक्शा लिया जाता है। किसी प्रॉपर्टी पर अपना अधिकार करने के लिए खसरा संख्या होना एक आवश्यक दस्तावेज है।

खाता संख्या, जिसे खेवट संख्या (Khewat number) के रूप में भी जाना जाता है, ऐसी संख्या है जो जमीन के उन मालिकों को सौंपी जाती है जो संयुक्त रूप से भूमि के किसी हिस्से के मालिक होते हैं। खाता संख्या भूस्वामियों और उनकी कुल जोत का विवरण प्रदान करता है। भू-स्वामित्व बदलने के साथ, खाता संख्या बदल जाती है। जैसे - दो भाई जिनका खेवट 4 में संयुक्त स्वामित्व है और जो खेवट 3 में जमीन के मालिक को जमीन बेचने का फैसला करते हैं। दाखिल खारिज के बाद, नए मालिक का नाम खेवत 3 और खेवत 4 में अपडेट किया जाएगा।

खतियान (खतयोनि) शब्द से बना है । खतियान का अर्थ होता है कि खेतीबाड़ी से जुड़ा दस्तावेज, खतियान शब्द खेतीयानी से मिलकर बना है। Bihar Khatiyan एक ऐसा दस्तावेज होता है जिसमें अपनी जमीन एवं मौजे का पूरा वर्णन होता है। इसके साथ इसमें खतियान धारी किसान के नाम, पिता का नाम,मौजा(गांव) का नाम,जाति,थाना नंबर,अंचल का नाम, जिला का नाम,राज्य का नाम,खाता नंबर,खेसरा नंबर (प्लाट नंबर),जमीन (खेत) के चौहद्दी, जमीन का दखल और दखल का स्वरुप,नवैयत/जमाबंदी नंबर, जिस कागज (दस्तवेज) पर ये पूरा विवरण लिखा रहता हैं उसे खतियान कहते हैं। CS Khatiyan: It is called Cadastral Survey. Documents prepared through survey for the purpose of determining possession, ownership and assessing Land Development Tax is known as Khatiyan. 1) It is also known as Record of Rights, 2) it does not confer any title to property. CS Khatiyan: This khatiyan was prepared on 1888 and ends on 1940 known as Cadastral Survey. RS Khatiyan: After 50 years of CS survey another survey was held on. This survey was known as Revisional Survey and the khatiyan made from this survey is known as RS Khatiyan. The purpose of this survey was to update the amount of land, owner’s name and possessor’s name. It is more authentic than the CS khatiyan.

खतौनी संख्या उन काश्तकारों को सौंपी जाती है जो अलग-अलग खसरा संख्या वाले जमीन के हिस्से में फसल उगाते हैं। यह काश्तकारों और उनके द्वारा खेती किए जाने वाले क्षेत्र का पूरा विवरण देता है। यदि भू स्वामी भूमि जोतता है, तो उसे भूलेखों में स्व-खेती की गई भूमि के रूप में दर्ज किया जाता है।

भूलेख (Bhulekh) संस्कृत का एक शब्द है जिसका अर्थ भू+आलेख (Bhu+Alekh) है। भू का अर्थ है भूमि तथा आलेख का अर्थ रिकॉर्ड है। भारत में भूलेख सिंधु सभ्यता जितनी पुरानी है। भारत सरकार ने स्वतंत्रता के बाद से ही भूलेखों को बनाए रखा है। इसे व्यवस्थित तथा यूजर अनुकूल बनाने के लिए, सरकार ने 1988-89 में भूलेखों का कम्प्यूटरीकरण (CLR) शुरु किया। इसके बाद 2008 में, भूलेखों के प्रबंधन में पारदर्शिता लाने हेतु सरकार द्वारा राष्ट्रीय भूलेख आधुनिकीकरण कार्यक्रम (NLRMP) शुरू किया गया था। हर राज्य की अपनी भूलेख वेबसाइट होती है जो संबंधित राज्य सरकार द्वारा संचालित की जाती है।


Dirty Money Market

Saudi Arabia’s Saudi National Bank invested about $1.4 billion for a 10% stake in Credit Suisse in late 2022, making it Credit Suisse’s largest shareholder. March 2023: Switzerland’s regulatory authorities allowed the takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS without the shareholder approval of either entity. Credit Suisse has two anagrams: Credit Issue and Suit is Cursed. Even frauds are made a respectable activity - this company used to be in list of Forbes and Fortune 500 company for many years. 2012: rank-204, 2018: rank-373.
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Credit Suisse Chart 18-Mar-23


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